New spike in COVID-19 cases could change political narrative. Can it change the culture?

When six of the fleeing Texas House Democrats came down with COVID-19, it was viewed by some as a metaphor with a punchline about the hapless out-of-power party's inability to catch a break in its effort to stop an election bill.

"They left Texas with a case of Miller Lite and got to Washington, D.C., with a six-pack of Corona (virus)," went one of the jokes that referenced the box of beer on a seat in the Democrats' bus that became the viral photo of the getaway.

But a week later, as a COVID-19 resurgence takes hold both in Texas and nationwide, the Democrats' current predicament might foretell a different story.

Look at the recent COVID-19 hospitalization numbers in Texas. On July 1, the Texas Department of State Health Services reported 1,591 patients hospitalized with COVID-19. One week later, it was 1,888. The next week it was 2,653, and it had climbed to 3,692 the week after that.

Now hit the rewind button to May 21, 2020, when the hospitalization number was roughly equal to that of July 1 of this year at 1,578. A week later it was 1,752, then 1,855. And on June 11 it was 2,166.

More:Texas sees first post-vaccination spike in COVID cases as Delta variant gains traction

It's plain to see that the upward curve in the current trend, fueled by the fast-spreading delta variant, is steeper than last year's.

The point of this little exercise is to illustrate how events often drive the political narrative regardless of the wishes of political leaders.

Let's go back again to June 2020, when Gov. Greg Abbott and local leaders around the state were frantically trying to contain the virus's spread because hospital beds and intensive care units were rapidly filling up with very sick people. The death count, already frightening, was getting worse.

Many businesses closed or were operating with reduced capacity, which led to widespread unemployment, work from home orders and more. But Abbott steadfastly refused to issue a statewide mask mandate amid cries from the right that it would be an unholy infringement of personal freedoms.

Then by July 2, when Abbott finally ordered the mask mandate, 7,652 Texas were hospitalized with COVID-19. And three weeks later, the hospitalization curve began to fall and Texans, for the most part, rejoiced.

This time, Abbott has served notice that he will not renew a statewide mask mandate, and he had already barred local leaders from imposing them in their jurisdictions.

More:Texas Democrats test positive for COVID-19 in Washington, D.C.

Back to the Democrats. The reason they bolted from Texas was to kill a 30-day special legislative session on a divisive voting bill and a handful of other matters important to Republicans. Abbott says he's going to call them right back in as soon as this special session ends Aug. 7. That's about two weeks from now.

Two weeks after 2020 COVID-19 hospitalizations first topped 2,000, they climbed past 5,000. A month after that — and a month is how long the next special session will last — is when they approached 11,000.

More:Secret meetings and phone trees: The story behind Texas Democrats' exodus from Austin

Let's assume we're on the front end of a June 2020-style spike — only faster, as the current trend line shows. Will the Republicans be cracking one-liners about the relative virtues of Miller Lite and Corona beer by mid-August when the next special session is likely to be under way? Will ordinary Texans, who, by the way, voted in record numbers in 2020 — just as they did in 2018 — without measurable hanky-panky at the polls, be all in a lather over so-called election integrity?

Will they care whether a child whose birth certificate says "girl" tries to make the boys' cross-country team? How transgender kids may compete in scholastic sports is another item on Abbott's special session must-do list.

Or will the House and Senate Democrats — assuming they're all back in Austin by then, and they most probably will be — have the moral high ground amid heartbreaking reports of at-capacity ICUs and of weary doctors and nurses having to tell some Texans their loved ones are not going to make it?

And, finally, will Texans who bypassed getting vaccinated under the assumption that COVID was conquered have by then rolled up their sleeves and taken the shot?

John C. Moritz covers Texas government and politics for the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at jmoritz@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @JohnnieMo.